Near average Karan crop production expected in December/January in the Northwest
KEY MESSAGES
• In September, a better off-season cereal and cash crop than anticipated in July was harvested in riverine areas along the Juba and Lower Shabelle and in agropastoral areas in Bay Region. However, July to September Hagaa rains in the South were significantly below average, which did not support Hagaa crop growth during the off-season and many crops wilted, especially in Lower Shabelle along the coast.
• Due to increased morbidity, limited health and nutrition services, reduced milk availability and consumption, decreased access of food loans, decreased water availability, decreased income from livestock and milk sales, increasing human displacement and asset losses due to conflict, high food prices, and continued Very Critical malnutrition rates, an estimated 870,000 people will remain in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phase 3 and 4) through December 2013.
• Above average to near average Karan rains from June to September in agropastoral and pastoral areas of the northwestern regions, are expected to lead a near average Karan harvest in December/January and increased food security in agropastoral areas of the Northwest.
• Following a poorly distributed March to June Gu rainy season and poor agricultural production, resources are already stretched in Hiraan Agropastoral livelihood zone where households are underconsuming and already at Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Following the thus far poor start of season and likely second consecutive season of very low crop production, poor households will increasingly be unable to meet their food needs and fall into Emergency (IPC Phase 4) from January to March 2014.